This is the start of a regular article series going over the ins and outs of the UK general election 2024. We will publish a daily article analysing the social, political, and economic dynamics of every toss and turn until the last moments of the General Election and its aftermath.
After months of speculation and intrigue the firing gun has been shot, to used a very often-used term, for the UK’s Summer General Election 2024. Rishi Sunak has declared today on a rainy and underwhelming day to dissolve parliament (which will be on/around the 30th May) and signal that we are about to hit General Election fever. This has come out of nowhere, but we will get back to this later.
The backdrop of this decision has largely been focused around two major aspects: the economy and immigration.
The economy is seeing some improvements in some areas; this is the major reason for Sunak’s decision. With an upturn in the national finances, assisted in a major way by the upturn in the US economy where economic growth has done incredibly well, the positive reason seemed pretty important. The idea of a recovering economy has always been a potent vote winner and Rishi Sunak hopes to cash in here. Though interest rates have stayed the same (though this is not a decision of the Government but by the independent Bank of England) there is a sentiment in the circles of big business that things are doing well. The donor class will probably be tipping their cap to the Tories and there should be a bit of windfall for this. So, from a national and political economic point of view this makes a bit of sense.
Immigration, though, is somewhat of a different kettle of fish. The national immigration figures come out tomorrow (Thursday) and this will probably be not good news for the right of the Tory party, but for centrists the headline might just be “high but a bit less than 2022”. This is the Tory hope that a figure that makes some on the right a bit less mad and some in the centre shrug their shoulders which can present Sunak with the only realistic opportunity to provide a somewhat united front. It’s a gamble, but it seems to be about timing here. The summer months are terrible for illegal immigration via the small boats and a summer of damaging figures might be mitigated if we are actually in an election era so going before the numbers get embarrassing, which is expected by Migration Watch and senior Tory figures, does make some sort of sense.
When it comes to other reasons to call for a general election, the others seem minor and seem to actually be stronger the longer he could string out his premiership for which he could have done, reaching into the end of January of next year. Uniting the Tories might have been done later with more fearmongering within Parliament. Social issues like the rise of anti-Semitism, union militancy within the health service for example might have been sorted out by the end of the year with the good old money-throw which could have been done with a better-looking economy in an autumn statement which might have been politically useful but would not mean a row of beans with a general election guaranteed in the first month of 2025.
Make no mistake though, this decision came out of nowhere. According to a senior Tory leader who texted a political correspondent to GB News: “this is utter madness”. No one in the Tory party was prepared for it. No one in the Tory Party really knew about it in circles outside of Number 10 and the cabinet until 2pm today (Wednesday). It really looks like the Tory election machine was not ready; and that is the most eye-opening. This was not a decision made by the tail of the dog, it was made by the head; though this does not mean it is a calculated move; it’s a move that comes from the executive, not the parliamentary party, or the voters.
Tory MPs will be livid. The polls show a slight levelling out with the Tories but Sunak has called for a General Election 20 points behind the Labour Party. They will have been bolstered by the aftermath of the local elections which show that people are not switching their votes from Tory to Labour, they are just not turning out. Labour, if they win (which according to Professor John Curtis is a 95% probability) will win because of 2019 Tory voters staying home. There’s more to this but we will analyse this at a later date. There is no Blair-like enthusiasm for Kir Starmer, and so this shows. Voters and points are there to be won.
What this does show, more interestingly, is that perhaps there is a lot more hope than expectation that the Tory brand is broken. After 14 years of a Tory government this is a symptom, though we could be wrong here. When one party is in power for so long hubris will start to take hold. There is a sense of ‘better the devil you know’ that politicians long in power will tend to rely on. History shows that parties and individuals who fall into this hubris of longevity will often get their comeuppance depending on the institution they are head of. The SNP example in Scotland is surely a warning to all those who lean on this hubris that time rots political brains of expediency and savvy decision-making and a sort of political god-complex can take over. From the speech Rishi Sunak gave, extolling the virtues of the Tory legacy (or really HIS legacy), it seems that this is a factor. He actually believes that the Tories have been a success, success enough to use it to point to the Labour party and say “that’s why we are better than them. It’s interesting, as Rishi Sunak is actually a very smart individual. You don’t get to where he’s got to without stabbing people in the back (Boris Johnson), waiting quietly for you political rival to make a mistake (Liz Truss) and quietly removing those who would disagree with you (Suella Braverman). He must think this is the best chance he’s got, mustn’t he?
This General Election will not be nice. It will be fractious. Empires will topple in Westminster and in Scotland. The rise of splinter-politics whether it be on the left with the Muslim Vote, or the right with Reform UK, will make this election anything but straight forward. There will be no continuity, there will be fewer safe seats and there are more undecideds than ever before. The legacy of the 2019 General Election is gone after the after-effects of COVID and the lockdowns, the war in Russia and the sheer disillusionment with the Tory Party. But, there is no love for Labour, who at the moment are winning by default; their opponents have been preparing for this fight by hitting themselves in the face.
There is no calling this General Election outside of who sits in Number 10. Labour will defeat the Conservatives, but this is an election for PARLIAMENT, not Government. We must remember that we are a Parliamentary democracy, not a Presidential Republic. We do not choose the executive, and we do not choose the Prime Minister. Leave the squabbles about who will be in Number 10 aside, because we don’t have a say. We have a say over the occupation of the green benches. When you focus on that you will see that this election is probably the most open one since 2010, and perhaps the most fractious since 1983.
The rain falls over London and Parliament today. The rain of politics will descend for a lot longer, and hopefully it will not blot out the sun…
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