The decision to call a general election is still causing heads to be scratched and it seems like there isn’t going to be too much clarity on the matter. In a febrile political environment the answer is probably a mixture of reasons that have their hierarchies and connecting elements. We will try to get some clarity here with a few ideas to contemplate.
Firstly, let’s look at the big picture. The Tories are on course to lose and lose big time. In a snap picture of what the Commons would look like if an election was held today found Labour on 440 and the Tories on 140 odd, with 40 to the Lib Dems and so on. That’s a bleak picture. And 6 weeks to turn that around is far trickier than 6 months, which Sunak could have used. 6 months is enough time to change fortunes in politics. A week, however, is a long time in politics and so maybe 6 might be enough?
Surely not. After 14 years of a Tory government it is impossible to turn fortunes round in 6 weeks. You could do it if you are defending a good record, a few popular policies that are ongoing and an economy that people don’t want to jeopardise. But the Tories have a disastrous record. You’ll notice, for example, that we refrain from calling them the Conservative Party. They aren’t conservative in any way. Big state, high tax, mass immigration, and in hoc to big business, turning a blind eye to the new cultural elite, all the hallmarks of a socially liberal party that has promised election after election to be conservative and then act anything but. Their political brand is in the doldrums. Whilst they may point to a GDP rising at 0.6 percent (fastest growing economy in Europe despite one of the sharper declines preceding it) they miss out on a 17 year stagnation/recession for GDP per capita, which simply means per person we are not richer in real terms, and have gotten poorer. The Tories have no record for success here.
There is also a major hangover from COVID lockdowns, but more on this at a later time. The Sub-Postmasters scandal, though not a Tory-own issue undermines trust in the status quo state. The infected blood scandal that is really opening up further pushes the ‘change’ narrative for the voter in the country despite it being a scandal of decades ago. Then there’s immigration, cost of living, matters of foreign policy and so on. There isn’t much love for the government of the status quo.
This, therefore, begs the question; why then go for it and not immediately rebrand or anything like that in your opening speech? Sunak didn’t mention anything about a reset, but rather he extolled the virtues of the past years of the Conservative Governments! It doesn’t make any sense. Of his 5 big pledges by which he wanted to be judged, he failed on 4 of them. Only inflation has been dealt with. NHS waiting lists, the small boats crisis, a ‘growing economy’ and lower taxes are still waiting to see any sort of tick against their pledges.
So on the face of it so far this is a crazy decision. As was mentioned yesterday, the parliamentary Tory party is angry. It’s been confirmed that letters are being sent in to the 1922 committee indicating that Tory MPs want to have a leadership election as a last gamble to stop the election going ahead as so many know they are about to lose their jobs. They need about 50-60 in order to achieve it but even if they succeed, which is highly unlikely, it would only make the situation worse now Sunak has gone for a General Election. Perhaps this was Sunak’s motivation? Drag the fast-splintering Tory party behind him. He’s faced defections to Labour and to Reform UK so this might focus some heads within his ranks. But that would make sense if they had a chance…
There’s another factor for Sunak; he could be scared of the most influential politician in the UK for the last 15 years. Nigel Farage, honorary President of Reform UK and popular TV show host, indicated very recently that he was considering coming back into frontline politics. Yesterday on GB News he said the looming threat of coming back and having a good 6 months to hammer Sunak from the right might have obliterated the Tory party, and well it might have. As communicators, decision-makers and debaters go, Farage comes out on top. Sunak would have looked like a wounded animal against the wolf that is the king of Brexit, especially to voters in the red wall (north of England). By going quick and fast Sunak stole a march on Farage. Perhaps here, we have the real reason.
Rishi Sunak wants to go on his terms. Rather than face as Farage calls it ‘obliteration, he has chosen suicide’. Strong words but in the face of disaster do you go gently or angrily into that good night, to paraphrase Dylan Thomas. He wants to go out on his terms. Cut his losses. Perhaps, more cynically, he wants to lose quickly, get a good job in America and see the back of the UK quickly. This is possible, and when facing obliteration why wait? Sunak has chosen the battleground, as all good commanders of armies do. The Duke of Wellington won the Peninsular War of 1809-12 by choosing where he would fight. Sunak has chosen his battlefield but it is more Gotterdamerung than Talavera; he’s not going to win it, but he will go down on his own terms.
We will analyse the positions of the other parties later but for now we must consider the Prime Minister’s decision. Perhaps he knows something awful is coming and he wants the distraction of a General Election to deter critics, but this seems like a reaction rather than a decision. In our view; it is still fixed in our mind that this is a result of the hubris of time in power. The grey suits that hide in the shadows of power must have thought that a shock election (and it is a shock as this was not on the agenda this time last week to anyone in power), would be the best way to retain power. Was Sunak badly advised? 14 years does a hell of a lot to make the brain trick itself into accepting any narrative that makes one feel that anything is possible even when reality says it isn’t. The Prime Minister has calculated that now is the time for a General Election. But, is his calculator working properly? Or are the buttons falling off? Is the screen cracked? Time will tell.
This article first appeared on the TDL Times. For more information, articles and more please visit www.thetdltimes.com.
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