As the UK is in the storm of an election cycle the rest of the world is still spinning on its rather chaotic axis. The international pressures and events still rage around and it is ever so tempting to compartmentalise the world out there and the world in this country. Though when voters go to the polls the general psychological rule is that people will tend to vote for things that they feel will better their own lives there is no doubt that the world outside will affect at least some aspects of this election; no less what voters think about parties and their attitude to foreign policy.
Rishi Sunak’s speech a few weeks ago was bang on the money; the world is in a very dangerous place. This was not scaremongering, nor was it playing with the politics of fear. Tempting though it might be to accuse him or any politician of using fear as a winning tactic, the world in 2024 is in a huge state of flux. International Theorists like John Mearshimer are being proved right in that the cosy post-Cold War consensus is now over and a new adversarial phase in international relations is well underway. We really are in an international state that is nearing 1963 Cuban Missile Crisis levels. We are not there yet, but the ‘ceiling of possibilities’ (the potential choices available to nations in the world) has certainly risen to 1963 levels. From Ukraine to Korea, Israel to Taiwan, from Saharan Africa to New Caledonia, there is an atmosphere of disorder after 30-odd years of American-inspired order. There are international statesmen with sizeable firepower and intentions that are completely at odds with The United Kingdom, the United States and the west in general. ‘Unipolarity’ (when the world has one global superpower and creates order out of it) is pretty much well over.
Not only that, but the western world itself is in a massive state of flux. We have the European Parliament elections where the rightist/Eurosceptic parties are going to win in so many European nations. The polls all over the West have seen the rise of the right. The social liberal establishment is being toppled in so many countries including Italy and the Netherlands and is due to be toppled in places like Germany and France. Marine Le Pen for example, the firebrand of the National Rally (socially right, economically left) in France is at the moment most likely to be elected the next French President. In America Donald Trump, despite the law-fare being waged against him by the Democrats is hotly tipped to become the 47th President when the US Presidential Elections occur this November. The US election is going to be a gigantic event that will provide a cause for the next 4 years and a visible symptom of the world we live in today; unsure, insecure and full of very negative possibilities.
The Ukraine-Russia war is still rumbling on and that has had a detrimental effect on energy prices. The insecurity over the Taiwan-China situation has led to a rise in the cost of superconductors which is a vital component for all circuit-boards (and this is relevant to South Korea too). The Israel-Hamas war is causing the Iranians to be even more belligerent, financially backing proxy rebels to raid international shipping through the Red Sea and the straits of Hormuz. This will have a gigantic effect on global supply chains which will greatly affect the cost of most things! The Chinese Belt-And-Road policy, tying multiple countries to the growing Chinese economy, fast becoming adversarial to the Global economy with the replacement of the US Dollar as all nation’s currency with the Chinese Yuan in countries in Africa, Asia and South America. In Afghanistan, a source of some of the richest lithium deposits for batteries, the Taliban in control of the country are fast-turning to China for their future with their resources. It is fair to say that the world is losing the harmony of resources, money, ambition and allegiance. This is not everything, and it is certainly getting worse.
There is one saga that is going horrendously under-reported that is a perfect symbol of the rolling back of the frontiers of the old world order that was forged after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. This saga is located in Africa in the old French colonies of Mali, Niger, Chad and other countries in the region known as the Sahel. France left these colonies for them to become independent nations but maintained immense financial control over these countries. This is because of the resources located within, the economies of these countries heavily back the value of the French domestic (metropolitan) economy. France also maintains a heavy military presence in this region. What has happened in the last few years is a significant push-back against French financial and military control. This has been in the news only because of the coups that have occurred in the various countries, culminating in the threat of a proper armed conflict between Mali and Nigeria and Ghana in 2023. Before you surmise that this is just a country asserting its independence it is in reality the desire for strong elements within those countries to switch their dependence from France to China. This is a really important frontier roll-back not because of any geopolitical rolling of tanks but of a geopolitical retreat of the west that it does not want. This is also happening with the United Kingdom: the Bahamas and Barbados are/have sought independence from the British Commonwealth and the British monarchy as the head of state. It is reported incorrectly that this is a move due to the legacy of slavery but in reality it is a desire for these countries to switch the money they receive from the British treasury to the Chinese treasury. The Chinese have bought up industrial ports on these island nations in the Caribbean rolling forward real Chinese economic power in a manner almost reminiscent of the Soviet Union flooding Cuba with Nuclear Weapons aimed at America. The shadow-war is on between America and China and the fall-back of France and Britain from their tentative links across the world is sheer evidence of that.
The US elections in November will be the greatest indicator of the fundamental change of international affairs. The United States has to take charge of the West’s fate as the age of the international liberal establishment reaches its end. Angela Merkel, ex-chancellor of Germany and once the darling of the international liberal world view is now fast-forgotten, her legacy in free fall due to her willingness to tie the German economy to Russian energy (symbolised with the NordStream I and II pipeline, now pretty much defunct), now seen as a huge strategic blunder. Donald Trump, if he wins, will represent the reaction to these international events. The United States will need a leader that is untainted by the international liberal legacy of conciliation for almost any price, symbolised with the fast-becoming unpopular Iran Nuclear Deal, and able to react strongly to statesman that want to carry on rolling back the west. Trump’s dealing with Kim Jong Un, hardline stance on Iran, hawkish nature with regards to China, are all assets that will see him popular to US voters worried about the international state of play and concerned about the US’s vital role in it. History has shown that American isolationism does not make things better; it makes things much, much worse.
Finally, coming back to the UK General election it is difficult to see just how much of an impact all of this has on the UK voter. The UK is not a big player on the world stage, its army is a tiny 70,000. It’s Royal Navy has a massive recruitment crisis and the UK military hardware has been sent, almost in totality, to Ukraine. It’s influence on the world stage is fast-becoming a difficult legacy, so tied has it been to the liberal consensus that has sent the world into the trouble that is being felt in every continent in some shape or form. So many things are not working in the United Kingdom domestically from public services to law and order. There is a growing issue with the rapidly growing population as a result of immigration that is causing the British to look inward along with the many other issues that British politicians will have to sort out soon before the United Kingdom gets any worse. This election will be important within the grand scheme of things internationally, predicted to be somewhat bucking the trend of the rise of the right in other countries, but the effect it will have on voters seems to be quite quiet. There is the effect of eh era of migration the world is going through but that will be for another day.
In the meantime, the world might just have to take a backseat for British voters somewhat, though perhaps that is too optimistic. The world is not standing quietly. It’s getting louder.
This article first appeared on the TDL Times. For more information, articles and more please visit www.thetdltimes.com.
Comments