Deals are not uncommon in politics; in fact they might be much more common than we think. Politicians, especially ones that are driven by personal ambition, brought up within a system that achieves coalitions from WITHIN parties rather that outside of them, are prone to deals outside of the view of the public and they may be more willing to bend than perhaps others would in more pluralistic political systems. In election times there are deals made all over the place due to the ‘winner takes all’ method of our electoral system in constituencies. You just need one more vote than the second placed team to take all of the prize. It’s the way we do things…still.
In order to unearth whether a deal between political parties has been struck you have to look at the language and what politicians are NOT saying rather than what they are. This is quite difficult as essentially politicians say only what they need to say and answer questions in as frank or as elusive as they like; that is the nature of free speech; freedom to not speak too. So for us to be accurate in our analysis of the unseen and the undeclared you have to look at what is missing from the conventional politics-speak. Luckily for you, after years of analysis into the way politicians speak and act we can pin-point some unseen deals that are perhaps more than just idle speculation.
The major parties were pretty quick to commence their campaigns in Scotland a few days ago. The Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrat’s (Lib Dems) strode into the fast-crumbling Scottish National Party empire to stake their claims for the political vacuum appearing as the SNP star falls from near-total domination to something of a rump organisation. More on Scotland’s future at a later date. The Lib Dem leader Ed Davey and Labour’s Kir Starmer though were very interesting in what they didn’t say, especially Ed Davey. All of the leaders gave the usual platitudes to their party’s record, promises and policy platforms and usually that part flanks the section about why the other parties are not as good. This is all standard stuff. But whilst Rishi Sunak stuck to type, the other two didn’t about each other. Quizzed very briefly later on they were not drawn into the standard playbook about the faults of the other party they instead chose to focus solely on the Tories. This is fair as the Tories are the incumbents but politics is usually about fighting the others too, especially for the Lib Dem’s who hope to re-establish constituencies in the north/north-east of Scotland.
So what is going on here? An analysis of literature of the Labour and Lib Dem politics shows that they are not going for each other. The Lib Dems, once scathing of Labour’s policies on nationalisation for example, are now eerily silent. Perhaps the policies of both parties are quite identical, especially in that they are both using Social Democrat policies (in fairness so, for the most part, are the Tories). What is more likely though is that there is probably a deal going on or one that has been struck. It is assumed that the Lib Dems will NOT campaign hard in places like the North of England, some Scotland seats and the major cities, save possibly in West London and the cities in the South-West of England and Labour would NOT campaign hard in the centre (shires) of England, most of the South-East/West and maybe a few constituencies in the midlands. Labour and the Lib Dems will therefore focus their campaign spending and efforts in fewer seats and not split the anti-Tory vote that otherwise might make the race a bit more tricky.
This is not unheard of before. In 2019 deals were all over the place. Nigel Farage’s Brexit party stood down their candidates in 325 constituencies where the Tory candidate was the incumbent. In the very same election there was a similar deal going on with the Labour, Lib Dem and SNP parties but this deal was not obvious nor was it announced. It seems as if there is another deal afoot but this time only with the red and yellow teams. This might seem underhanded and undemocratic but it is the reality of the First-Past-The-Post electoral system. You do NOT need 50%+ of the vote to win the seat, you just need 1% more than the second place party. This means you might only just need something like 20-30%. They will say “Don’t hate the player, hate the game”. At least these deals are happening before we all vote! Deals that happen afterwards, well that is another kettle of fish.
So it seems that Labour is going for a big but not too ambitious sweep of constituency wins. This is perhaps a face-up to the reality of a snap general election that took people off-guard and put the Labour summer fundraising campaign mentioned in the Day 1 article into the bin. This could be ‘plan B’ and it might be a shrewd decision. The Liberal Democrat’s will probably therefore achieve perhaps something like 7-9% of the vote yet achieve perhaps something like 15-20% of the seats. Labour will probably be sacrificing around 20-30 seats it might win but speculation in an election that sees little predicted with certainty other than Labour being the biggest party in the House of Commons come the 5th July when the votes are counted. Politics is a dirty game, but that is the game that has to be played in order to achieve victory. It isn’t called a greasy pole for nothing.
This is by no means an indicator that there will be a coalition between the two parties. It doesn’t mean that the two parties are going to share executive power. But it does mean that the Tory defeat will be heavier. The Lib Dems are far more likely to vote through a Labour King’s Speech (the indication that the governing party has an agreed mandate and has agreed a government that commands support of the majority of the House of Commons) and in the event of a Labour Minority government the Lib Dems can be counted on to support Labour motions. The Lib Dems, kingmakers in 2010, could be used as a Labour contingency, but if they achieve victories that are much greater than their actual national vote share it could push them into national relevance once more. It is an election deal, therefore, that suits them both down to the ground. In their position one could say you would do the same.
The Tories are unlikely to get, or even seek, a deal with Reform UK. The Tories have always acted as a closed shop and Reform UK (previously the Brexit Party that publicaly did a deal with the Tories in the 2019 General Election) have completely ruled out another deal. The Tories are very much on their own and despite the pre-election courting of Nigel Farage and Reform UK leader Richard Tice to join the Conservative Party they will be sniped at from every direction. This has led one Tory MP, Lucy Allen, to fully endorse the Telford Reform UK candidate running against her. It is estimated that more than a couple dozen Tory MPs are genuinely worried that not only will they be defeated but that Reform UK are making it more than a mathematical certainty and are looking to jump ship or try to make a deal with the party locally as Tory central office sits in its bunker shaking its head at even the mere prospect of talking to the Reform party.
The Labour-Liberal Democrat deal, unofficial and therefore only strong speculation, looks like the latest and biggest twist of the election so far. Time will tell if the deal lasts the 5+ weeks to go, especially as public debates get underway and manifestos are published. Politicians can make deals one day and break them the next. Will voters consider this deal worth it and vote with the scheming of the parties or will they stick to their guns? Deals in politics rarely end well, as one party eventually lives to regret it and feel the costs later on.
But politics is often written and remembered by the victors. Who will win in this very possible deal?
This article first appeared on the TDL Times. For more information, articles and more please visit www.thetdlfitmes.com.
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