This article will attempt to predict the results of the UK General Election based on MRP polls, momentum, general trends and the predicted possible effects of the last days of messages from the parties and the media. This doesn’t mean it will happen and we might be totally off, but let’s have a bit of fun with as much sophistication as possible.
Labour will win. Shocking prediction, we know. They will come first because of an incredible amount of disenfranchisement from their opponents. Labour will also benefit from the split in the opposition vote between the Tories and Reform, but the prediction is that Reform will be annoyed that the Tories split the anti-Labour vote in hundreds of seats in the North, the Midlands and so on. Reform will come second in many places. The Tories will not be wiped out and will probably climb towards 100 seats, perhaps closer to 125 as in places in the outskirts of cities there will be a rallying anti-Labour vote the Tories will naturally benefit from due to a high local presence.
The Tories will be wiped out in the Red Wall, the midlands save one or two seats and they will retain a large foothold in the East of England. They will also hold on to quite a few seats in the shires and South-West as the Lib Dem surge proves not enough in many places. Penny Mourdant, Mark Harper and Oliver Dowden will lose their seats along with Jeremy Hunt. Rishi Sunak will keep his seat but will lose his majority by 20,000. Many other senior Tory MPs will lose their seats and will see the one-nation centrists Tories dominate the remaining Parliamentary party. We will discuss what predictions for after the election will happen in another article.
Reform UK will poll high, but just under their ceiling of this election of 24%. They will get something closer to either side of 20% as the Tories squeeze out local Reform candidates either by scandals or bribes (as has been confirmed for a few candidates in the last few days). Their seats will be disappointing but not if reflected against predictions as the start of the campaign (initially predicted 0). Nigel Farage will win Clacton and it will be a historic shift. He will be joined by 8 others from Skegness to Great Yarmouth to Ashfield. Reform will get dozens if not hundreds of second places in areas mostly held or gained by the Labour Party. They will be disappointed in the South-West and will be almost unheard of in London and Scotland but they will do very well in the North, Midlands, East of England and Wales. Their percentage and seats are most up for fluctuation. People will be impressed with their final poll showing due to the emergence of shy Reformers (much like shy Brexiteers started coming out from the shadows) as that will be the legacy of the media hatchet jobs that will continue into the final days.
The Liberal Democrats will do exceptionally well in terms of seats, and be less convincing with their vote share. They will not see much if any of a percentage in anywhere other than the south/east/west of England. They will jump up to around 45 seats as they benefit from the Labour-Lib Dem pact that will endure to its final day. The Lib Dems will come second behind the Tories in places where there is an established senior Tory like Jacob Rees-Mogg or Kemi Badenoch and whilst they will claim success they will be secretly dissapointed they did not do better. They will be the only other party outside of Labour that has an MP in the major cities like London. They will not get close enough to the Tories numbers.
The Scottish National Party will lost more than half of their seats but will not be wiped out at all. Their Independence rival, Alba, will come a close second but they will not be able to break through anywhere. The SNP will be disappointed but not too disappointed as they will hold on to more than they thought. Labour will out-poll them in Scotland and will get more Scottish MPs but they will feel like their position in Holyrood will be under threat when elections to the Scottish Parliament next year.
The Greens will get 2 seats, which will be impressive as they will likely just, just hold onto Brighton.
The Workers of Britain will lose their only seat held by George Galloway.
So here we go with the number predictions based off of projections using polls, arguments, coverage and momentum:
Vote Share:
Labour: 38%
Reform: 19.5%
Tories: 18.5%
Lib Dems: 15%
Greens: 5%
SNP: 2%
Other: 2%
Seats:
Labour: 449
Tories: 120
Lib Dems: 45
SNP: 23
Reform: 8
Greens: 2
Plaid: 1
Independent: 3
Voter Turnout: 63%
Voter turnout will be disappointing due to the campaign turning off more than it coaxing into voting. Turnout will largely stay the same with regards to age, though the amount of 18-25s might see an uptick by about 2 or 3%.
The standout prediction is Reform beating the Tories into second place. This is likely to be a really close run-thing and in all honesty the result could be very different; it depends so much on whether shy Reform-voters are hiding in such numbers that will get them over the Tory line. The shy Tory voters are most likely to not vote. The prediction is voters ‘coming back to the Tories’ but they are more likely to not vote than to ‘come back’. Reform will see themselves MOST benefiting from non-voters changing their minds to come out to vote than any other party, save maybe a few constituencies in Scotland coming back out for the SNP. This will help them into 3 more seats than perhaps others are expecting (2 more in the North, one more in the shires or London commuter belt).
The ramifications of this election we will predict later on but here is the prediction from the TDL Times after investigating information from the great sources including the work done by Professor Matthew Goodwin as well as that done by People Polling, online polls and trends based on the last few days of elections in the last 20 years.
We are more than happy to be proved wrong, but we might put a sneaky fiver on the above result (we are NOT Tory candidates and so have no insider knowledge, haha).
This article first appeared on the TDL Times. For more information, articles and more please visit www.thetdltimes.com.
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