The Labour Party, on course to win the 2024 general election, published its manifesto with many commitments that were expected and with the clarity we have all been waiting for. With the party on course to win majority that basically gives them the power to do effectively whatever they want, and indeed whatever Starmer wants, we now have a glimpse of the quality and desires of the next parliament.
As suspected, the main thing about this manifesto is the economy, or rather milking the economy for all it has. The VAT on private schools, the Non-Dom scrapping, it was all there. There was nothing new, no surprises and no reall massive change from what the Tories had been doing beforehand. Dubbed the ‘change’ manifesto, it was a 132 page document outlining not a whole lot.
Labour will recognise a Palestinian state. Whether that’s the Hamas state, the Abbas state, the Fatah state, we dont know. But, they will.
They will raise an additional £8bn in taxation through their schemes they have announced already, but when their manifesto is costed there needs to be an additional £20bn to raise as well in order for their finances to add up. In fairness, the black hole of the Tory manifesto is not much smaller, but with Labour set to win it was more a question of how they plan to actually raise those taxes.
Labour will raise VAT.
Labour will put a check on immigration but will not put a cap on it.
Labour wil introduce teeth-cleaning lessons for primary school children.
Labour will introduce more low-traffic neighbourhoods and pedestrianise large swathes of towns and cities. Petrol and diesel car sales will be banned from 2030.
Under the current projection, Labour plan to raise taxes to 37.6% of GDP per head - the highest since the 1600s. This is opposed to the Tory plan which will see the number rise to 37.1%. It is currently 36.5%.
The problem with this manifesto is what it doesn’t say, and luckily we know what Rachel Reeves, assumed to be the next Chancellor, is going to do as she said as much in 2018 and 2021. The 20bn extra Labour need to raise will come from increasing capital gains tax, tax on stocks and shares and transaction taxes. The tax burden will increase to historic proportions, not seen since the middle-ages.
In all honesty, the manifesto changes nothing in terms of the momentum of big state and high taxes the Tories put in place. The only element of divergence is the Tory stance on VAT but that was always aspirational. Labour’s plan is to do more of the same and hope that simply waiting it out will reveal a growing economy. There will be no radical change other than a more state-sponsored cultural shift rather than a more disjointed one to the more Marxist hard-left state, represented by the lucrative DEI initiatives.
This manifesto revealed the true nature of the Labour Party; it is a socialist one. The Lib Dem manifesto, analysed earlier, fits in perfectly with this manifesto. This one has the big socialist ideas of culture and the economy. The Lib Dem one focuses on the environment and foreign policy. The pact is very well done here. The record levels of taxation show the socialist side of the party so in a way it is hard to see a major shift from the Corbyn days, minus the anti-Semitism, at least at the top of the party. The ideology is strong with Kir Starmer who himself has revealed his socialist credentials slowly but surely. He is committed to the moderate left and though he has ditched Corbyn he has not ditched the coalition involving the hard left. It will be interesting to see how the coalition remains behind him, especially the Blairites in big business who will see a lot come down hard on them with raising corporation tax, another little surprise Rachel Reeves has in store.
How will this be received in the country? No one will really notice it. Labour have done little to advertise their tax-hikes for good reason. Their socialist plans will most certainly be circulated amongst those who care and have the inclination to read their manifesto but to the wider public the Labour Party will do their best to keep their plans as silent as possible from the public, especially their tax plans. All they need to show in their manifesto is that they are not the Tories; the party at the time of writing is now polling below the Reform party. Labour simply need to carry their Ming vase for under 3 more weeks and their plans will be put into action.
This is a scary manifesto, with an ominous tax plan for all of us. Labour’s sinister plans to raise as much money from the public will be painful and unpopular. They will bank on this stimulating the economy via Keynesian economics. It’s as if they completely forgot the 1940s-70s. There is far less certainty that this is anything more than a 1-term manifesto. Unpopular decisions will always have to be made, but they might be biting off a bit too much this time. We will see where this manifesto, soon to be mandate, takes us.
This article first appeared on the TDL Times. For more information, articles and more please visit www.thetdltimes.com.
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