Day 1 of the General Election saw the usual roll-out of stalls from the various parties making reasonably predictable statements about taking chunks out of the incumbent and setting out visions for change or the incumbent defending a record and saying how bad the others are. There will be something to look at there but quite frankly there isn’t anything one can really investigate because there are no published manifestos yet! This really does show the unreadiness of all parties, and i mean ALL parties.
According to verified reports from journalists, the Labour Party was due to run a huge fundraising campaign in the summer. The plan was to raise millions of pounds in order to really outspend the Conservatives; and this would have been relatively easy. Tony Blair did this before the 1997 General Election, making pacts with big business mostly in exchange for money. The most notable was Rupert Murdoch’s deal with Blair; Blair would get lots of money and favourable airtime on Sky, good articles in the Sun newspaper in exchange for making sure Britain didn’t join the European Single Currency due to be launched 2 years after the election (called the Euro). Labour were due to do this all over again but this has been scrapped or squished into a couple of weeks during the election itself. The Labour Party have been rattled a bit here. The Tories will be in a slightly better mode here.
It is also worth noting here that this is will be an interesting election in terms of spending issues generally for the two big parties. There are spending rules in place for the 6 weeks before a General Election, but before that period there is basically no limit. You can spend hundreds of thousands of pounds in target seats and that is absolutely fine. Campaign literature, communications with prospective voters, the list is endless for what you can do! But this election was called with no real warning and so there has been no targeted spending flood. This coupled with the lack of incumbency (there are over a hundred seats up for grabs where the existing sitting MP has indicated he/she will not seek re-election) means that there is a decent argument to be made that this is a very much more fair election; especially for smaller parties.
Speaking of small parties one of the first major events of the election was Nigel Farage’s decision to not seek to become an MP. This is interesting as it was revealed by him and sources very close to him that he was due to re-launch his personal campaign to get back into frontline politics and to run to become an MP in a target seat (Boston and Skegness, Clacton or maybe somewhere in Kent). This campaign was to be launched next week. He decided yesterday though that he wasn’t going to stand. This has had a negative effect on the polling of Reform UK, not least because it was estimated that Reform would jump from between 3-8 points in the polls, effectively overtaking the Tories the polls! Though he will take an active part in politics he will not be actively seeking a seat. Time will tell if this is was a good decision.
The terrifically interesting point about this is the part it played in the calling of the General Election itself. As it becomes painfully clear that the Tories were themselves not ready for this General Election we still have to hark back to why did Sunak call this election in the first place. We have already indicated some reasons but here is probably another one and maybe one of the most salient reasons; the Farage factor. Nigel Farage is incredibly popular with 2019 Tory voters. Reform UK is already taking in about a third of Tory red wall (northern constituency) voters but with Nigel at the front of Reform that number jumps to well over half. Did Sunak get wind of the Farage plan to return to frontline politics? Was he scared? The theory is that Sunak found out about the Farage plan and decided to call a General Election in order to stifle the comeback. Compared to the other speculative reasons this one seems the most obvious short term and, with a few months of campaigning for a more predictable November General Election, delaying a general election any more would risk the Tories being hammered by Reform UK for months. Farage was a factor and it explains the frankly amateur optics of the calling of the General Election.
Whether this is the major reason or not it is clear that Nigel Farage scares the establishment in Downing Street. He is the most influential politician outside of Parliament, and perhaps even compared to those inside, of this century. He managed to wrestle David Cameron into giving the Brexit Referendum and did more than most to win it. The existential threat the Conservatives have in being defeated and even replaced as the second largest party, ending over 200 years of dominance in British politics, is more than enough of a reason to call a general election at any time. Farage directly or indirectly represented that threat and so the general election on the 4th July 2024 could have been carved out by Farage, or rather in order to stop him, which at least in terms of standing as an MP this has been achieved. Sunak could have decided to destroy his premiership for the sake of the party; perhaps that is what the shadowy men in gray suits told him to do.
The true reason for this general election might never be known, and it is time to stop the focus on this question from now on on the TDL Times. One thing is for certain; Sunak has always self-styled himself as most politicians do as being a decisive politician who is in control and knows what he’s doing. As the dust settles on the whirlwind that was Wednesday’s announcement it is becoming more and more clear that he reacted to events, is not in control of said events and is soon to lose control earlier than was necessary because events were stronger than him. Labour will beat the Tories to executive power. Nigel Farage will still campaign and be very influential. Sunak’s legacy will be summed up in one soggy and depressing picture of him calling an election. What’s true is that no one is ever really in control, not least in control of events.
As Prime Minister Harold MacMillan said in response to the question about a statesman’s greatest challenge: “Events, dear boy. Events”.
This article first appeared on the TDL Times. For more information, articles and more please visit www.thetdltimes.com.
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