The member states of the European Union head to the polls today to vote for who they’d like to represent them in the European Parliament. Turnouts for these elections are usually always very low, mostly because the European Union does not feature heavily in national politics on the continent. The European Parliament is also politically very weak as it has no actual legislative powers. It is, though, a great barometer of where the political wind is blowing especially due to its use of the proportional representation-type of electoral system.
It is widely expected that parties on the right wing of politics are going to sweep to victory in the nations all over Europe. Chega in Portugal, Vox in Spain, the National Rally in France, the AFD in Germany, Fidez in Hungary and so on, parties advocating for strong national voices in politics are expected to do really well, carrying on the wave of national populism sweeping through Europe and a rejection of the social democrat consensus that has been prevelant in most European countries since the turn of the century. This populism is feeding off the effects of the era of migration as Europe continues to struggle with the flood of migrants from the Middle-East and North Africa and the effect it has on the social and cultural fabric of various countries. The rejection of the old ways of doing things is going to really hit the big time when the results start trickling out in the next few days and weeks, and the European Parliament will start to look very different.
One of the biggest problems for right-of-centre parties is that the famously can’t work well together. As opposed to the more internationalist left-ist parties like the Greens, right-it’s parties obviously want to prioritise the interests of their countries over anything else and “conservative” parties i.e. those who wish to preserve the national nature of their countries, means something different in every country. For some it is a form of big state conservatism like the National Rally in France, or more libertarian like the AFD in Germany (well, depends what faction of the AFD you are looking at). This means that it is really difficult for ‘the right’ to work together to achieve things. Euroskepticism, something that has been a shared view of the right, is not even close to a unified principle any more. They will most likely be an obstacle to European Union plans like further political and economic integration and will probably simply force pressure on the EU commission to appoint a President that will take the EU down a slightly different path. Time will tell.
This change to the right, though, is fuelled so much by the youth of Europe. Young people are moving by high double digit figures towards the right. The young’s negative reaction to mass immigration which puts a strain on home ownership, communities and infrastructure as well as the availability of public services is causing them to view these problems as requiring NATIONAL solutions rather than international solutions which have only made the problems worse. The old international consensus of the free movement of peoples is falling down in a big way with the likes of the Netherlands and Sweden as well as Hungary imposing far more strict border controls both as a reaction and as a consequence of the rise of the right. The young of Europe are starting to look at the European Union as an obstacle to the young self-interest that has always been a guiding principal since the 1950s, and whereas it used to be in favour the EU with free movement and the Erasmus scheme to name a couple of examples, the nation-state is making a return to importance. The young of today are far less likely to see the current social democrat status quo as the providers of all the things their elders enjoyed like home ownership, community and nation. Though, it is important to stress again, the ‘right’ means different things in many different countries.
Whilst this is all happening Britain is the outlier, moving to the left. Britain had its populist move to the right in 2019 with Boris Johnson, but the political establishment did nothing to change or reflect the populist right that has become the majority in Britain. Not only that, but British youth is far more likely to be on the left, though generation Z (those born after 2006) are starting to move slightly to the right or at least the centre. Part of a quirk that we import lots from the state of play in the United States of America, young people in Britain are far more likely to have very leftist world views, partly as a result of the British education system (where statistically for every 1 ‘conservative’ teacher you have 9 leftist teachers according to investigations). The Labour Party is set to win a historic and gigantic landslide.
Is this showing that Britain is moving against the tide being felt in Europe? No. The populist right is on the rise with the growth of the Reform party but as a result of the electoral system and people actually feeling more disenfranchised than radical and Labour will win not because of a majority of support in the country but by default. The ‘none of the above’ vote will far outpace the Labour Party vote share on the 4th of July. The failure of the populist right was symbolised by the tremendous downfall of Boris Johnson and subsequent chaos at the top of the Tory party that still goes on to this day. The Tories were handed an unprecedented majority in 2019 and did nothing with it, showing time and again the complete lack of awareness of who exactly was voting for them and why. Instead, the Tory party maintained a contempt for the populist right voters that gave them their majority, symbolised with the recall of Lord David Cameron the the immensely important role as foreign secretary; the man who once referred to populist right voters as “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists”. The Tory party held on to its big state social democracy credentials and they are paying the price now.
Europe will be a great display of the tide of politics in Europe, and this will be backed up by the likely re-election of Donald Trump in America (according to the betting markets which are always a better indicator than polling companies!). Britain will go down a different path of more social democracy, more socialist (or woke) identitarian politics but when the populist right reforms there is a chance that Britain will also feel the tide being felt in Europe. But whilst we used to be riding the waves far ahead of Europe, we are now behind. Will Britain paddle back to where the pack is?
Good luck in the elections, Europe, whatever your political stance is. Britain is watching.
This article first appeared on the TDL Times. For more information, articles and more please visit www.thetdltimes.com.
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