Week two has seen the general election increasing in interest and intrigue. We have had a political heavyweight return to frontline politics. We’ve had a leaders debate, we’ve had little bits of political drama which means week three should start to see things really pick up under this trajectory. Voters are starting to take notice and with 4 more weeks of this at least it won’t be too long.
The last week saw one event bring the general election to life. As we wrote in yesterday’s general election edition, Nigel Farage returned to the political frontline to lead the 3rd largest party in terms of polling, stand for the seat in Clacton and commit to at least 5 years of frontline politics in general. The Reform UK Party story so far in this general election has been labelled by many commentators as rather remarkable. If there’s one party that lays claim to ‘winning’ the last week or two it has to be the teal party. We suspected that the Reform polling share would be squeezed as people turned to the Tories or Labour as many often do in the face of a General Election. The Reform vote share was polling at around 12%, though once at a high mark of 15% a couple of months ago. That number was due to go down but it stuck at 12%. This is extremely significant because it shows that their vote is permenant and in many ways it can only go up as a smaller party. What’s even more remarkable is that this was all before Farage returned to the fray. Richard Tice, a charming man but has nowhere near the charisma of the firebrand from Kent, kept the party going and without much effort has managed to lead the party to the third most popular in this country since at least the start of this year, perhaps even including most of 2023. With Farage back all bets are off. Could Reform poll the same or even more than the Tories? If they do this then there could be a gigantic shock coming down the mountain on the 4th of July.
An incident happened with Farage when a young girl threw a milkshake on him yesterday a as he was coming out of a pub in Clacton. Though Farage made light of it soon after it was a terrible occasion. Regardless of your politics no one should be assaulted, especially those running for office. It is an important part of our democracy for those wishing to stand for office to do so without fear of intimidation or assault. The young woman was arrested but whilst people laugh it could have been so much worse. What if it was acid? Britain has the highest rate of acid attacks in the country. Blame has to be put on the girl but also on the commentariat that throw words like ‘racist’ or ‘xenophobe’. If you describe someone as that when there is no evidence to show that it is the case you make it acceptable for people in their minds to assault someone. If you paint someone as a monster it makes any action against them seem justified. If people have grown up conversations people would act like grown ups. Our journalism is getting horrible. After the deaths of two MPs in the last 8 years maybe people should start being much more grown up about people, issues and the state of affairs.
Elsewhere, there was a debate between Starmer and Sunak which we covered in a special edition published yesterday. Sunak seems to have come out of yesterday as the ‘winner’ according to a YouGov poll which is probably just about right, if anything because Starmer looked like a weaker leader. It was interesting when someone made a comment that it looked like Starmer wasn’t looking like a leader so much that she thought that he wasn’t, and that the trade unions and deputy leader Angela Rayner were really in charge. There seems to be a little parallel between Starmer and Biden; two people who had made deals with powerful others to help get them into power in return for them parroting the lines they were told to say. Now, this is idle speculation but after yesterday Starmer did not seem like someone held up by 40% as the polls suggest; he looks like a bit of a yes man. We didn’t really get any personality from him. Sunak, for balance, really struggled with things like NHS waiting lists and defending a record he should do everything he can to distance himself from, but he is kind of hamstrung by the past seeing as he was deeply involved in it. He can’t really do anything about it so his freedom of action is far more limited. Starmer could swing his weight around; he didn’t.
The polls have not shifted. Recent MRP polls (the biggest editions of polling) still had Labour on course to win a triple-digit majority, though the recent big polls are backdated to the 18th May, but it shows domination on a national level. More than 8 Tory cabinet ministers are predicted to lose their seats including Jeremy Hunt, Esther McVey and Simon Harper and the worst-case scenario polling for the Tories sees their seats reduced to a mere 77 seats, with the Liberal Democrat’s a handful of seats away from becoming the official opposition (second largest party). This, as well as Farage’s return, has led to at least 6 Conservative candidates, at least one of those being an incumbent, seriously considering jumping ship to Reform. The deadline for confirming candidates is this Friday. What more twists could occur? Though Sunak ‘won’ the debate with Starmer he has done nothing to show he can reverse the tide of obliteration heading his way. The Tory party, regardless of the speeches of its captain at the wheel, is a ship that is sinking, under the water for 10 years or so; so badly it pretty much ensures Sunak will resign as leader and a William Hague-style caretaker replacement will be put in there whilst the Tories search for a soul in the literal and ideological sense.
Labour have seen some drama of their own. Jeremy Corbyn, their last leader mired in anti-semitism scandals, was thrown out of the party and is now standing as an independent. Diane Abbott, who wrote anti-white racist articles including comments now seen as anti-Semitic, was seen to be thrown out of the party according to her but has now been allowed to run as a Labour candidate in the constituency in Hackney where she is popular. But the main thing about Labour is that it is holding on to its poll lead despite no real policies to speak of save the old ones like taxing private schools and scrapping the Non-Dom status, adding last week their plan for a ‘Great British Energy Company’ that will be state run. Starmer reaffirmed his commitment to the nuclear deterrent and the armed forces. Starmer has really tried to continue to distance himself from the Corbyn years in which he served in the frontline of Corbyn’s Labour, previously campaigning for nuclear disarmament, mass nationalisation, another EU Referendum and mass immigration, has largely succeeded. Sunak’s claim that the Labour will cost the average household an extra £2,000 per year in extra taxes in yesterday’s TV debate seems to have hit Labour a bit, denying the claim very loudly as the shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves said she had committed to no income tax, national insurance or VAT rise in the next Labour parliament. She said nothing about taxation for pensioners which Sunak accused Starmer of planning.
The Liberal Democrats also did something. They committed to free elderly care. Didn’t really say where the money would come from, as increased government borrowing is really off the agenda for all parties. Their leader, Sir Ed Davey, fell off a paddleboard. They are polling at 9% and that doesn’t really seem to change. They are set to win something like 40 seats. That’s it.
The Greens also said something but it’s doubtful many were listening. They are predicted to lose their Brighton and Hove seat but who knows.
The SNP are seemingly unable to change their fortunes. Polls predict that not only will they lose their monopoly on most of the Scottish Westminster seats they are predicted to lose their majority of them to Labour. Scottish Independence, according to veteran political commentator Andrew Neill, looks to be dead for at least a generation.
In the end, as is still painfully obvious, Labour is going to win the election and there is no changing that fact. It is a sad day for democracy as the winner is pretty much nailed on despite what the other parties do. It takes away the excitement of things. But as we mentioned in yesterday’s edition perhaps the excitement can be found in what happens after the election, on the right of British politics. Could the Tories die a final death? Will the Reform Party re-enact the Canadian replacement of the 1990s? Will Labour actually keep the ship afloat amidst a sea of bad economic forecasts including a predicted rise in unemployment and an international situation so chaotic it is quite frightening (like the recent blowing up of the railway that connected North to South Korea)? It might not be what happens necessarily on 4th of July that is more interesting, but what the 5th of July intake will have to deal with both internally and externally. For us as voters perhaps we need to start thinking long term too. Will that change the tide? You decide.
This article first appeared on the TDL Times. For more information, articles and more please visit www.thetdltimes.com.
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