A sleepy world awoke to the noise of a thought-to-be bygone age, but an age that never left in the first place. As the democratic peoples of the world struggle with the comprehension of the Ukrainian war the real question looms; why did you think such an event was impossible?
The Russian incursion in the Ukraine is well-talked about in houses, pubs, restaurants and the common theme seems to be one of disbelief as if one has been transported into a new universe. It seems unnerving, as if the ground under one's feet is rumbling. In fact the very foundations of civilization seemed to be rocked. Is this just a blip? Is this a final lashing out of the old world in an attempt to reassert itself in an international system of peace and prosperity? Is this the new normal? Even asking such questions is enough to reach for the smelling salts.
With a simple reach for a history book, however, one can't help but roll one's eyes at the mere notion that this event is somehow unexpected and unprecedented. The parallels between this and the turn of the 20th century are terribly frightening. With a firm grasp of history one can see that history indeed repeats itself because time after time people seem to find a utopian ideal that we have finally reached the end of history. Fukuyama's 'The End of History' work encapsulated that very same delusion that captured the moustached and gafawing well-to-dos as they toasted in the new and exciting 20th century brimming with possibilities and enduring peace. How wrong they were, and how wrong we have been.
The world has not moved on into this new utopian ideal of friendship, peace and cooperation because of one simple fact; power. No, this is not power in the socialist form of class or race warfare; work that stupidly thought to transpose the very real international power struggles on more intimate domains of society. The international stage has a resplendent array of nations and organisations vying for the finite resource pie that is this terra firma and those resources shift and transform into different iterations. It used to be land, then to plunder, then to glory, then to influence, then to resources, then to ideology and now what is the great resource? To China it is land and resources, to Russia it is influence and glory, and so on and so on. There are international power struggles that appear over and over again in small and large forms from trade wars to proxy wars and everything in between.
So why the confusion on our side? Well in a phrase; it's the economy, stupid. The great mistake of the 20th century is the wilful and arrogant invitation from the western democracies to the autocracies and enemies into the very brilliant monetary system that allows for the sort of prosperity that we have all been living with. We thought, with breath-taking arrogance, that once the dictators had been invited into the tent their followers would depose them for a more democratic alternative. Once money and the Americanised 'individual pursuit of happiness' had been exported to the autocratic world then democracy would come in afterwards.
How did that do in Afghanistan? America came riding in, literally all guns blazing, to help the Afghans swap terror for McDonalds, swap burqas for mini-skirts. 20 years later the Afghans have slipped back into the world they were previously accustomed to. How did that do in China? America came with a fist full of dollars, metaphorically, and stuffed it down the mouths of the Chinese in a bid to defeat ruinous communism. 50 years later and the communist party is in more control than ever, expanding more than ever and providing the greatest threat ever to global stability.
Finally, how did that do in Russia? Russia provided the greatest smokescreen to the west when the Soviet Union fell in 1991. We thought that with the Soviet fall we could flood Russia with western dreams, wonder and material in a bid to control, spread liberal democracy and bring it into the new world. Russia is currently driving its tanks through yet another piece of sovereign territory. Our confusion is the price we have to pay for our arrogance.
Did you know that only a fifth of the world's countries are democracies? Did you know that China is singlehandedly buying up entire nations in its belt-and-road initiative? Did you know that the clamour for Jamaican, Barbados, Bahamas independence from the British crown is because they have simply swapped the British purse for the Chinese one? Did you know that wars have been going on for decades in Libya, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Central America, countless African nations, Chechnya and countless other theatres of war? How happy we are to ignore them. How blind we have been.
And when the ugly truth raises its head what do we cling to? International order. International institutions. How often have we heard the clamour to investigate Putin for war crimes? Ask the poor Ukrainian people what they think of International order. There is none. The arrogant west once again invited the dictators into those orders. Russia laughably sits on the Human Rights Council, Security Council and has a permanent VETO. China is close at hand. We have allowed the leaders of Saudi Arabia to dictate to the world in a South African summit the ideals of human rights, citing Israel as the only pariah state to flagrantly abuse 'international human rights'. Unclench your hands from the hope of international law. The foxes are in the henhouse.
What is the real international institution we should cling to? NATO; a military cooperation organization. Note the word; military. NATO has the power and at this moment in time is our best hope in these current times. This organization was built specifically to counter the military power of the enemy; an enemy we have been so keen to let into our house. The real denizens of peace are the brave men and women who represent the military institutions of the great and hallowed nations of freedom and justice. It is peace through power, not peace without power, and for the last 30 years we have foolishly given away power believing it will give us peace.
Whilst we have been tearing our hair out over the make-believe arguments of gender pronouns and what statues are allowed up our enemies have been waiting. Biden is the symbol of a west that is content with tearing itself apart. Stalin famously said that the only way to defeat America is to defeat it from within.Why do you think Putin has waited until now? Biden is a symptom of the hubris of the last 30 years at its peak. The west has made itself weak as liberalism has turned in on itself. The autocracies are on the march.
And so here we are, watching as a ghastly mistake is wrought out in gruesome detail. Why do you think we are so willing to plaster Ukrainian colours on social media? Why are we as a people, who have long shunned nationalism as a backward and awful doctrine, happy to shout to the tops of our voices our support for a leader and a people actively using nationalism as a key tool in their defence of their homeland? Deep down we are sorry that we have been so blinded. Ukraine was offered a deal to give up its nuclear arsenal in the mid 90s for the promise that its territorial sovereignty would be protected by Russia AND the west. We took that deal believing that the age of rampaging Russian tanks was over. We were wrong.
We are slowly waking to an awful dawn. Our hubris has been exposed. Entire nations find themselves like rabbits in the headlights of this reality; one nation being Germany, the singular pillar that holds the EU together. Political leaders struggle to react, like the French president Macron adorably suggesting that Europe can organise its military without America. The little Napoleon, the disgraces Auntie of Germany Merkel, the British establishment with pockets lined with Russian cash, they can't decide how to backtrack.
So this leaves you. Where do you stand on this? Well, here's a thought; pick up a history book. See the parallels and try with all of your might not to let history repeat itself. Be aware that we have been so lucky, and remain lucky, to be in a wonderful democracy. The next time you shake your fist at the establishment remember that you do not live next door to the powerful autocracies who, if you forgot, have nuclear missiles that are more than tempting to use. Instead of joining a mob trying to tear your country to pieces why not try to see the big picture; you are in the minority of people who get to think, feel and act independently of the wishes of the state, sort of. See the world as it really is; not a utopian dream, but as a harsh world of power and struggle. Be glad you have been on the winning side but know that it needs defending. The first thing you need to defend it is to be proud of it, and then you will be ready to fight for it. Hopefully, it is not something you will have to die for this time.
Are you awake now?
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